“The stock market always goes up! It’s a sure thing! There’s 90 years of data backing me up, and look, just in 2008 when it seemed all was lost, the stock market came roaring back! The stock market is always up and to the right!”
I want to throw up.
Here’s the only issue with saying the stock market will always trend up: the earth is a closed system.
I could end the post there, but that’s not interesting, productive, or informative for you to understand the underlying and fundamental reasons of how my statement proves why the stock market cannot always go up.
Saying the stock market will always go up ignores physics and biology. It’s not too difficult to reason the conclusion when presented with the following case, but I’m sure there will be push back 🙂
In this post, I’m going to be sharing with you why the stock market cannot always go up.
What My Argument is Not About
First, I need to clarify what I’m talking about when I say “the stock market cannot always go up.”
Here’s a simple picture to visually explain what I have an issue with: (picture of the stock market always going up)
My problem is the comment that it assumes infinite growth in a finite system.
I have no problem with the argument, “the stock market will always come back to its previous high, and possibly go above that previous high, because humans are resilient and will come up with better technology” because this is true. Over time, technology does improve, processes become more efficient, and businesses become more profitable (in a capitalist society).
I have no problem with this picture and the statement behind this picture. A boom followed by a bust, followed by a boom, is nature.
I have no problem with investing in the stock market, and have a fair amount of my net worth in equities and index funds.
It’s the first picture here, which has infinite growth baked into it that gets my blood boiling.
The Problem with Infinite Growth
Saying, I’m at $200,000 in investments today, and in 30 years, I’ll have $2,000,000 assuming 10% growth is an exercise in absurdity. (While yes, it’s possible that with wonky money printing techniques we will all be millionaires and billionaires, what do you think the dollar will actually be worth?)
Here’s the thing with infinite growth of stock market trends: it assumes a number of things which are not consistent with what we experience on a day to day basis here on Earth.
What do I mean?
First, let’s remember why stocks have value. A stock has value ONLY because the underlying company is PROFITABLE and PRODUCTIVE.
To be profitable and productive, that company needs to use energy and other materials to produce value. There are a number of finite inputs to this process (seemingly ignored by economists).
First, energy is finite. Second, the materials are finite. Third, the customers are finite. To assume infinite growth is to assume one of these is infinite.
It’s that simple, but I need to say a few more things.
Your Data Driven Argument is Flawed
Again, I need to make this point: I think equities are a solid investment in most economic environments. In a growing economy, by definition, the stock market will go up.
Over the last 100 years, the United States stock market has trended upward and has stayed up:
I’m going to make the joke again… is that the chart of Bitcoin?
The United States has had the world’s number one economy for the last 50 years, so yes, the economic growth of the general stock market should be up and to the right.
What’s interesting though, to say, “In the future, I’m going to project economic growth at 7-10% annually” is to mistakenly go against one of the fundamental pieces of statistics and econometrics: past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
To say “the stock market always trends up”, is to make this mistake.
In addition, this ignores many of the limits which we talked about in the previous section, namely customer base, materials, and energy.
These cannot be ignored as money is a claim on energy, and debt is a future claim on energy.
Again, it’s a systemic issue rather than a financial issue. The economy is a subset of the environment (the Earth), not the other way around.
An Example of Growth Gone Wrong: Cancer
We all know about unrestrained and infinite growth in a finite system gone wrong – its name is cancer. Unfortunately, there are many things that cause it, and doctor’s haven’t quite found a cure for it.
Cancer happens when certain cells go rogue and stop functioning the way they are supposed to:
- Normal cells know when to stop growing; cancer cells grow with abandon with no regard to the space around them.
- Normal cells kill themselves when their duties are done, a process called apoptosis; cancer cells ignore signals to die and, without treatment, may divide indefinitely and become virtually immortal.
- Normal cells communicate to help their host survive and thrive; cancer cells communicate only to deceive the body’s defenses.
If not treated (and even if it is treated), these rogue cells can overtake the human body and can lead to death.
I hate that I just had to write that sentence, and I hate that this is an example on my blog, but the point is true: infinite growth in a finite body is NOT sustainable.
A Case Study of Wall Street Analysts Not Understanding Biology and Physics from 7/25/2018: Facebook
In July 2018, the market had quite the shock. After hours, Facebook had their 2nd quarter earnings call and talked about headwinds for future financial performance.
Facebook’s stock dropped 23%. Factors leading to this were a number of things, but most prominently was a comment about how user growth had slowed.
First, 44 of 48 market analysts had Facebook rated a buy for recommendation.
Second, I don’t see how the “slowing user growth” narrative wasn’t sniffed out earlier looking at the above chart. (Oh wait, Mark Zuckerberg made that comment 3 months ago) Maybe those analysts should read my blog, because they obviously are ignoring one of the fundamental pieces to biology and population growth: carrying capacity.
There are only 7 billion people on this Earth, and about half of those people don’t have internet.
Population growth, user growth, really any growth in a finite system follows the following shape:
It’s not rocket science. But for whatever reason, in the name of infinite growth, it’s ignored time and time again.
How to Think About the Stock Market
At this point, maybe you agree with my argument now, and maybe you don’t.
The goal of my work here on The Mastermind Within is to inspire new thoughts and perspectives to challenge you and help you become better in your life.
If I can succeed in doing that then I’m happy.
Let’s change the perspective I’d ask you to view this post through here and shift it to one of sustainability.
Here’s what I want you to take away from this post:
- When using statistical arguments, look to understand the underlying assumptions and consequences of those assumptions to ensure your argument is sound
- Look to promote sustainability (and work to become more sustainable in your ways) where possible, and understand that there are limits to our world (there are limits we need to acknowledge unfortunately even if we live with an abundance mindset)
- Realize things can be different than they appear. We all come from different perspectives and experiences, and have different biases and opinions. I’m not an expert and could be completely wrong here. At the end of the day though, I’m challenging myself and hopefully challenging you.
- Challenge yourself on your portfolio and asset allocation. It’s okay (and probably a good thing) to own a basket of assets and become more financially resilient.
Concluding Thoughts on the Stock Market
I’m going to get some heat for this one, but I don’t really care. The conclusion is obvious when you dive in and think about it.
I’ve been searching for the truth – looking inward to who I am as a person, looking outward to examine the world around me, and drawing conclusions based on my observations.
I’m not an expert. I’m not a guru or a financial expert. The only thing I know is that I know nothing at all. Being eternally curious is how the mind grows. I’ve been all over the map and learned a ton from writing this series. I hope you have as well through reading it.
Here’s the thing: we live in a closed, finite system. The Earth has limited carrying capacity. There is no infinity here on Earth. It’s physics. It’s biology. These points can’t be ignored. The stock market cannot always go up.